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Middle-East Nato Signed in Mecca By Pakistan, Turkey & Saudi Arabia
- A Radical Dispatch
1) The Mecca Agreement
*The release of this post was delayed this week due to last Thursday’s eclipse livestream
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have signed a mutual defence pact that is being touted as a new Middle Eastern Nato.
Reuters reports 7th August 2026:
“RIYADH/KARACHI/ANKARA, Aug 7 - Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed a joint defence agreement in Mecca on Friday, wedding Sunni Muslim U.S. allies alarmed at a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf oil exporters. Iran and its allies have been firing on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, and blockading their energy shipments, since the U.S. and Israel attacked it on February 28 in a major escalation after years of regional tumult….Turkey has NATO's second-largest military. Saudi Arabia is home to Islam's holiest sites and one of the world's top oil exporters, while Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed Muslim country.”
With Turkey newly joining, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have expanded their existing bilateral mutual defence pact that was signed in late 2025.
The signing ceremony for the new trilateral deal took place in Islam’s holy city of Mecca.
Click to play:
President Trump hailed the deal on his Truth Social account, posting it alongside the below explainer video, while suggesting that it “could reshape the security landscape of the region”.
This is correct. It will.
Click to play:
The combined military might of these three countries is significant and described below.
This combined military might is important when considering that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed that triggering the Middle Eastern mutual defence pact is technically the same as triggering article 5 of Nato, an attack on one is to be deemed an attack on all.
Click to play:
Journalist: “I would like to delve into this gradually with my colleagues and fellow editors. First, let’s look at the principle—often likened to NATO’s Article 5—whereby an attack on any one of these three countries is deemed an attack on the entire pact. Is this identical to NATO’s Article 5? What is our perspective on this?”
Hakan Fidan, Turkish Foreign Minister: “Technically speaking, it is the same. It is technically the same. After all, that is the very reason for establishing a security pact; that is why the other countries ultimately decide to join the alliance—to benefit from mutual protective support. There is no issue there.”
These words serve as confirmation that a new, post-war Sunni Muslim centre of gravity is emerging in the Middle East. This isolates both the region’s warring factions: the Israeli Likudnik-Zionists and the Iranian Shia-Islamist theocrats.
We forecasted such a development last June for GB News America with Bev Turner.
Click to play:
Maajid Nawaz for GB News America: “Now the Israelis, many voices in fact inside Israel, have complained about the deal, but the problem, the difference this time around is there really isn’t much room left for them to manoeuvre, beyond this deal. So even if they try and make some military manoeuvre, say in Lebanon where Netanyahu has made some noises about not being happy, about having to pull his troops out, the difference this time around is that if Israel were to continue this war, they would really find themselves internationally isolated and perhaps for the first time, without even US backing beyond this point as well.
And now if we look to Iran, again this war has demonstrated what with the complete decapitation of the Iranian leadership that Iran, after doing everything it could in the region including bombing its neighbours found itself, also, after that point isolated. Because all of the Sunni Arab Gulf states, of course backed by Pakistan, stood on the one end opposed to Iran’s continued bombardment of its neighbors. So both countries found themselves relatively isolated in the region. And so it really is a unique moment that despite, despite the fact that there is clear will inside Israel to carry this on, there isn’t much political room for anyone to manoeuvre beyond this point. So what we’re hoping to see is a peace deal that despite difficulties, is held and maintained. And it could truly mean the end of a decades long conflict in the Middle East and perhaps the beginnings of an era of peace. Of course, with that said we’ve still got the Gaza situation and the Gaza peace board to get to as well, but one thing at a time Bev.”
We take both of these warring countries, the Iranians and the Israelis, in turn below to highlight their increasing regional isolation, and then we demonstrate the emergence of a third way. Read on.
2) The Iranian Theocracy is Surrounded
The signing of this mutual defence pact has resulted in the geographic encircling and increased political isolation of the Iranian theocracy.
Iran’s political isolation was exacerbated by her own miscalculation by striking at all her surrounding Muslim Arab neighbours after the onset of US and Israeli strikes.
Radical Media reports 5th March 2026:
Click to play:
Maajid Nawaz for WARRIOR CREED: “We agree on the fact that the Likudnik Zionists and Israel currently under their leadership, led by Netanyahu, are ideologically driven for conflict. That part we agree on. Where we disagree and where the Western regressive left should frankly shut up, is that the Iranian theocracy is also ideologically driven. for war in the region. They are an ideologically driven power, such as the Likudnik Zionists. Their ideology instead is Shiite Islamism, not Likudnik Zionism. And Shiite Islamism believes in the supremacy of all Islamism, that is to say, synchronising law with any one given reading of Islam. That is Islamism per se. But it is on top of that sectarian, because it’s Shiite Islamism. So it believes in the supremacy of Shiites to govern any Islamist ideological entities that they go about creating in the region. And that’s what they did in Syria. They were artificially propping up the Shiite Alawite dynasty in Syria, in order to keep the Syrian Arab Sunni Muslim population under their grip. So Shiite Islamism isn’t just ideologically driven for conflict and war. It is also sectarian on top of it.”
And though the Turks have been at pains to state that this mutual defence pact doesn’t target anyone in particular:
Reading between the lines points to a slightly different conclusion.
As does an understanding of the region’s global trade shipping routes.
Click to play:
“Saudi Arabia just assembled a multinational army, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and 11 more, to fight for the Bab al-Mandeb, one of the most critical waterways on the planet. Here’s why. The Strait of Hormuz had already been effectively shut down by the U.S.-Iran War, forcing Saudi Arabia to reroute its oil exports through Red Sea ports instead.
Then on July 20th, Yemen’s Ansarullah, also known as the Houthi Movement, announced a naval blockade against Saudi shipping in that same Red Sea. Cutting off the one route Riyadh had left, within days a Saudi-linked tanker was hit. Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel, and Saudi Arabia struck back with airstrikes on healthy infrastructure at Hodeidah.
Ten days later, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense unveiled something it hadn’t built in years. A multinational maritime defense alliance, headquartered in Riyadh, tasked with protecting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden. Forty-three nations showed up to the founding meeting. Fourteen signed on immediately, including Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, and Nigeria.
The coalition calls itself purely defensive, aimed at no single country. But look at who stayed away. The UAE and Oman, the two Gulf states that actually sit on Hormuz, didn’t join, despite facing the same threat from Iran. And notice what this alliance doesn’t cover. Hormuz itself stays outside its mandate.
Saudi Arabia is now defending two choke points in two different wars, and the US hasn’t joined this one yet. But everyone expects it will. Is this the start of a new Gulf military bloc, or just a stopgap? Drop your take in the comments and follow MAP narratives for the next update as this coalition takes shape.”
The Iranians too have been keen to understate the strategic impact while publicly welcoming the new defence pact.
Reuters reports 10th August 2026:
“DUBAI, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Iran sees no reason to be concerned that a new security pact between Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia is directed against Tehran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday. Baghaei said the pact showed a shift in regional countries’ approach to security, with greater reliance on their own capabilities rather than outside powers.”
Welcoming this was the only option left to the Iranian regime, who are acutely aware of their own political isolation and fragile state due to the US and Israeli strikes. At any rate, a new Sunni-Muslim regional hegemony is preferable to the Iranian regime than an Israeli one.
Click to play:
Esmael Beghaei, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: “There is no reason why, as you mentioned, the two neighbouring countries of Turkey and Pakistan, as well as Saudi Arabia, three countries with which we have deep religious, historical and civilisational ties, should worry that this treaty will be against Iran. The history of friendship between the nations of Turkey and Pakistan is long-standing, as are the two neighbouring Muslim countries. The intertwined cultural ties between the people of Iran, the people of Pakistan and Turkey are quite clear. As I have said, this is not an important sign.”
Despite the diplomatic welcome being signalled by Iran, British propaganda outlets that are pro-Iranian regime have been publishing skeptical analysis. Here is an example by the former leader of the - now banned - British branch of global Sunni Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir.
5 Pillars reports 11th August 2026:
“The deep strategic ties that all three signatories already maintain with Washington point strongly towards this being an arrangement Washington has sanctioned rather than one designed to displace it….The Gulf states have watched, repeatedly, as the United States failed to deliver the protection it long promised. A pact like this can serve a useful function for Washington: it lets regional partners absorb more of the burden of their own defence, without requiring America to withdraw the deeper structures of influence — bases, arms sales, intelligence-sharing — that keep it embedded in the region. That raises the real question: does this pact represent genuine appetite among these states for a security order fundamentally different from the status quo, or is it simply a more efficient way of managing that same status quo?”
Despite such mild criticism, ultimately the Iranian theocrats know that they have very few regional friends remaining and that they must keep their neighbour Pakistan on board.
3) Israel is Isolated
Like Iran, Israel too finds herself politically isolated due to this emerging new Sunni Muslim defence pact. Unlike Iran though, Israel has less to lose by saying so openly.
Out of the three countries that have signed the pact, Israeli commentators have been focusing on Turkey as their main threat.
The widely read pro-Likud Israeli political site Israel Hayom had preceded the foreign ministry with this exact message.
Israel Hayom reports 8th August 2026:
“Turkey, meanwhile, is emerging as a major threat to Israel, no less significant than Iran. Ankara will seek to use the alliance to expand its influence in the Gulf and challenge Israel both diplomatically and militarily….At the same time, the Ankara-Islamabad axis is gaining momentum, with security procurement and industry at its core. Turkey is now Pakistan’s second-largest arms supplier, and the two countries are moving beyond off-the-shelf procurement toward deeper cooperation involving the joint development and production of technology from the ground up….”
Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennet has been campaigning to replace Netanyahu as prime minister, using this very issue.
Click to play:
Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennet: “A new Turkish threat is emerging. I want to be very clear. Turkey and Qatar have gained influence in Syria, are seeking influence elsewhere and everywhere throughout the region. And from here, I warn, Turkey is the new Iran. Erdogan is sophisticated, dangerous, and he seeks to encircle Israel. And while some senior Israelis were on Qatar’s payroll, Qatar and Turkey are nourishing the Islamic Brotherhood monster that is growing and eventually might become as dangerous as the one created by Iran. Turkey and Qatar are gaining influence not only in Syria, but also in Gaza, through the front door, and everyone. And trying to create a new choke ring. Turkey is trying to flip Saudi Arabia against us and establish a hostile Sunni axis with nuclear Pakistan.”
Not to be outdone by one of his main rivals in an overdue election, Netanyahu has also adopted an anti-Turkey posture.
Click to play:
Israeli PM Netanyahu: “Say, because we’re on the verge of the presidents going to Turkey. Look, Turkey is a great country, but it’s governed by a man who calls openly for the annihilation of Israel. He occupies half of Cyprus, a NATO country. He’s threatening Greece and other NATO country. And he talks openly about conquering Jerusalem. As a foreign minister, his number two said that the Jewish state hasn’t a place among humanity. Basically, it has to be wiped out. His interior minister said he looks forward to be the governor of Jerusalem. Well, for a regime infected by the Muslim Brotherhood, an extreme movement that hates America and chants death to America from that side of the spectrum, I don’t think they should be given F-35s or the engines for their fighter jets, because that’ll upset the power balance in the Middle East which is ultimately guaranteed by Israeli air superiority, and also by I think by America’s posture in the Middle East.”
Likewise, Israeli Agriculture minister Avi Dichter (Likud) has recently confirmed Netanyahu’s message by specifically warning about this new defence pact.
Click to play:
Israeli Agriculture minister Avi Dichter: “Now a new alliance is being forged, which I can’t say is against Israel, but it is certainly a complicated alliance for us. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey: this is a very, very problematic Sunni alliance for the state of Israel. Egypt will most likely join this alliance, and this is a different direction. There was the Iran-Iraq, Syria-Lebanon axis, which we cut off, and Syria and Lebanon got out of that game, and now we have another alliance. This requires us to be very, very careful. Pakistanis are a country with nuclear weapons, and we need to stand guard on this issue. This only strengthens the oppressor, in an alliance with a world power of the magnitude of the United States.”
It seems that pressure on all national politicians is coming from more grassroots based ministers who maintain strong ties to the Israeli settler movement, such as Diaspora Affairs minister Amichai Chikli.
Here, Chikli argues for Israel developing a new rival axis, allied with Greece, the UAE and Somaliland.
Click to play:
Diaspora Affairs minister Amichai Chikli: “There is a very dangerous and very disturbing incident here. Saudi Arabia was actually sitting on the fence, it already had a previous defence agreement with Pakistan, but as soon as it goes with the Turks, who are facing us on a full front, it opens to dimensions that may also have extremely heavy consequences, both in the Mediterranean, and also on the Syrian front with Golani, who is a proxy for the Turks. This is an event that is very, very bad for us, for Israel. It requires us to deepen our alliances, with Greece and Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, Somaliland, Odo. That is the reality, those are the next, so-called, challenges of the next decade.”
But Israeli criticism of Turkey specifically, and the defence pact generally, appears to be concealing a wider objection to Israel losing her regional hegemony.
This explains why the Israelis have not just opposed this defence pact, but have also been opposed to President Trump’s peace deals for the region.
Radical Media reports 18th June 2026:
Most recently the Israelis have rejected the 15-point peace proposal made by Trump’s Gaza Peace Board.
For reasons of ideological blindness, it seems that key Israeli decision makers have decided that a return to a regional balance of power, and securing President Trump’s peace, is against their national interests.
4) Egypt May Join Next
As is being widely reported, Egypt is touted to be the next Sunni Muslim country to join this new Middle Eastern Nato.
Click to play:
Pakistan’s Defence Minster Khwaja: “The doors really cannot be closed to other countries. This should not be an exclusive club—this is my personal opinion. It should expand. I think that, along the lines of NATO, Muslim countries should put their own differences aside—the transactional issues or bilateral disputes they have with one another—and stand together on this one platform.”
Turkey’s Foreign Minister has stated that Egypt is a “natural partner.”
Bloomberg has confirmed this story.
Interestingly, the Middle East Eye reports that the delay in Egypt joining is largely due to Egypt’s diplomatic complexities involving Israel.
Middle East Eye reports 10th August 2026:
”…In February, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett accused Turkey of ‘trying to flip Saudi Arabia against us' and establish a hostile Sunni axis with nuclear Pakistan’….expressing frustration with the matter, a Turkish official told MEE earlier this year: ‘We are trying to keep the Egyptians and the Saudis on this platform, while the Israelis are constantly trying to bully them.’ … As a US ally, a neighbour of Israel and an Arab country with full diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv, Egypt must carefully manage its complex engagement with the Israeli government….Egypt has a defence treaty with Abu Dhabi and deployed Rafale fighter jets in response to Iranian strikes against the UAE in May. According to the second source, this predicament has also led Saudi Arabia to view Egypt as somewhat unreliable. The source added that Egypt does not want to choose sides between emerging blocs comprising Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on one side, and Israel, the UAE and India on the other.”
This report reiterates the idea that an Israeli axis will emerge to counter the Sunni Muslim one. Of note is that Sunni-Muslim-Arab majority UAE has been included here as part of the emerging new Israeli axis.
5) A Third way: Peace of the Middle East, by the Middle East, for the Middle East
Our regulars will recall that for a while now we have been forecasting a grand regional settlement for peace in the Middle East, based on the emergence of a new Sunni Muslim ‘sphere of influence’ controlling its own region.
Below, we provide our analysis.
