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Cartoon by Morten Morland
Reform UK Declares War on Labour
- A Radical Dispatch
1) Reform Fields Local Robert Kenyon Against Labour’s Andy Burnham
The Reform party has declared war on Labour’s chances in the Makerfield by-election by fielding a candidate who was born in the Makerfield constituency.
Click to play:
Robert Kenyon, Reform candidate for Makerfield: “I was born in Makerfield. If I was elected, I’d be the first person born in the constituency to become the MP. I don’t think any MP that’s ever stood in Makerfield was actually born in the area. I’m a plumber, a gas engineer. I’ve done that for a long time. I did my apprenticeship when I was 18. I love being a plumber. I do enjoy it. It’s hard, but I do enjoy it, because I do take pride in the work. I don’t know, it gets me a bit emotional sometimes, thinking there’s a chance that I could be representing people in Parliament because it’s a massive honour. And people will be thinking, ‘Hang on a a minute, he serviced my boiler last week!’. Labour and probably the majority of the other parties have got career politicians, you know, they go to private school, to university, they get a job as a think tank or they’re an assistant to an MP. And then before you know it, they parachute into somewhere they’ve never even visited to stand as an MP. Now, they might know the system, they might know how politics works, they might know Westminster. But they don’t know the area or the people, you know. You could read a book about something, but you’ll never understand it until you actually do it. For Andy Burnham, Makerfield will be a stepping stone, but for me it’s the only place I’ve ever wanted to represent. People in this area, this constituency, have been taking advantage of far too long and it’s time to take a stand. The Makerfield constituency deserves a local champion. You have got a voice, make that voice heard on June the 18th in this Makerfield by-election, and go out and vote for Reform UK.”
Reform’s angle will be that only they can unseat the governing Labour party.
Due to Labour’s stark unpopularity, the data present Reform with a fighting chance. Reform took over 50% of the vote in recent local elections and won all eight contested council wards.
The Times reports 18th May 2026:
“Reform swept the board in the eight council wards up for election in Makerfield at the start of the month, winning 50 per cent of the vote to Labour’s 23 per cent.”
Labour’s stark unpopularity and Reform’s long running national surge means that this election will be one to watch.
The Independent reports 18th May 2026:
“Long seen as a Labour safe seat, Wigan’s Makerfield has been in the party’s hands since its creation in 1983. However, Mr Simons won the seat by a majority of just 5,399 over Reform UK at the 2024 general election. Since then, Labour’s polling has collapsed, while Reform’s has surged…This month’s local elections saw Mr Farage’s party win every council ward in the Makerfield constituency, securing around half the vote. Labour was left trailing behind, having secured little more than a quarter of the ballots.”
Especially since Reform swept all eight contested Council wards in this month’s local elections.
Even Labour party members now see Reform as their greatest threat.
The Times reports 19th May 2026:
“…A majority of Labour members (53 per cent) thought the greatest threat to the party came from losing votes to Reform compared with 15 per cent who saw the Greens as the biggest threat.”
No party in government has successfully defended a seat with a majority this small in almost 40 years.
The Times reports 18th May 2026:
“The biggest barrier between Andy Burnham and No 10 is a smattering of towns between Liverpool and Manchester. His allies say the chances of him winning the Makerfield by-election are 45 per cent. Looking solely at national polls, the likelihood of a Labour win would be far lower…This is by no means a safe seat. It has a majority of 5,399… A party in government has not won a by-election defending a seat with a majority this small in almost 40 years. The two by-elections Labour has already lost this parliament came from majorities of 14,696 in Runcorn & Helsby and 13,413 in Gorton & Denton — both comfortably double the buffer achieved by Josh Simons, the MP who has stepped down to make way for Burnham’s run….Labour’s vote share has been consistently 10 to 20 percentage points higher when Burnham is on the ballot.”
Burnham’s additional challenge will be to balance a paradox: he is campaigning as the Labour party, while voters remain aware that he is actually campaigning to unseat his own leader due to Labour being a failure in government.
The Independent reports 18th May 2026:
“Speaking about the veteran chances, pollster Sir John Curtice told The Independent…‘He’ll be the first candidate who’s trying to win a by-election on the basis that he wishes to replace the leader of the party that he’s standing for’.“
The above is to say that Makerfield is far from being considered a safe seat for Labour.
2) Reform Beats Labour But Not Andy Burnham
The Reform party is beating Labour in the national polls, and would easily beat Labour in the Makerfield constituency. They remain far ahead in national polls, even as their lead narrows.
The Times reports 19th May 2026:
But, even though Reform would beat Labour as a party, Andy Burnham has a large personal following that makes him specifically - and no one else from his party - likely to beat Reform. He is, by far, the most popular Labour politician nationally.
The Independent reports 18th May 2026:
With that in mind, Burnham - and not Labour as a party - is the current frontrunner to win, with prediction markets assigning him a 57.5% to 62% probability of victory as of time of writing, mid-May 2026. Reform’s Robert Kenyon remains the primary challenger, with markets pricing his chance at 29% to 39%.
As stated, Burnham is viewed as the strongest Labour candidate due to his personal popularity in the region. Polling suggests Labour has a 67% chance of winning if Burnham stands, compared to 0% without him.
The Independent reports 18th May 2026:
“A recent forecast by Survation would support this assessment, with the polling group finding that Labour has a 67 per cent chance of winning the seat with the Greater Manchester mayor as candidate – compared to a 0 per cent chance without…Mr Burnham is recorded as the UK’s most popular politician by pollsters YouGov, with 35 per cent of people having a positive opinion of him. By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity sits at 19 per cent, and Mr Streeting’s at just 12. The public support for Mr Burnham is thought to be even more pronounced in the northwest, with many locals approving of his record as mayor since 2017.”
Below is a visual of what could happen if Labour fielded anyone other than Burnham. Reform would easily win.
The Makerfield by-election is expected sometime this June. This is Burnham’s race to lose.
3) Starmer’s Approval Plummeting
If Burnham were to win in Makerfield, it is no secret that…
