Radical Media - by Maajid Nawaz
Israeli Invasion of Rafah Looms But Israel Stands Isolated After Iran's Retaliation

Paid episode

The full episode is only available to paid subscribers of Radical Media - by Maajid Nawaz

Israeli Invasion of Rafah Looms But Israel Stands Isolated After Iran's Retaliation

Plus Warrior Creed Podcast

This Radical Dispatch Newszine - below - is provided free for all subscribers.

At the top of this post, Resistance Radio presents our WARRIOR CREED breaking analysis from yesterday Tuesday 16th April 2024, with a transcript provided - Israeli Invasion of Rafah Looms But Israel Stands Isolated After Iran's Retaliation.

The audio analysis is for premium members of Radical Media only. To listen, basic members should upgrade to the premium service here:

Read on now for our free Radical Dispatch.


Israeli Invasion of Rafah Looms But Israel Stands Isolated After Iran's Retaliation

- A Radical Dispatch

1) We are not (yet) in WWIII

As readers will recall from our instant analysis last Saturday just as Iran launched drones towards Israel, Israel was facing multiple attacks from all sides.

Timed with Iran’s attack, Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah reportedly initiated simultaneous operations against Israeli interests. Footage of reported cruise missiles over Basra, Iraq, heading towards Israel emerged according to Israeli Media:

Click to play:

This added Iraqi militia threats to the already active & effective Houthi operations from Yemen shutting down major resupply routes in Strait of Hormuz.

With Hamas to Israel’s South continuing to demand the IDF’s attention, Hezbollah in Lebanon to its North - who pose Israel’s most dangerous threat - also launched their missiles alongside Iran’s.

Click to play:

These attacks from last Saturday night were a practical demonstration of how Israel faces multiple attacks from all directions. As the incident revealed, this time Israel is unlikely to receive the US backing it has historically depended upon.

Any US escalation option would mean WWIII, which is a lose/lose scenario that the US seems painfully aware of.

Click to play:

President Trump: “What's going on with Israel could end up in a world war. We have a president that can't put two sentences together. We have a president that can't find the stairs off a stage. We have a president that doesn't know what the hell he's doing. And we could end up in a world war. You know, we have just a little bit less than seven months now, months before November 5th. But that's an eternity when people are incompetent.

2) Regional US allies are luke warm

Pakistan, Jordan & Turkey will simply not cooperate with any US retaliatory attack on Iran via their bases. Jordan had on the night closed its airspace, only allowing international cooperation to remove any Iranian missiles violating its airspace. Gulf Arab countries have already signalled their intentions vis a vis their bases, in no uncertain terms. Several Gulf countries are "increasingly restricting" US ability to use local bases on Iran proxies.

Politico reports 14th February 2024:

Some Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, are increasingly restricting the U.S. from using military facilities on their soil to launch retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian proxies, according to four people familiar with the issue.

The U.S. has long deployed thousands of troops at facilities in the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and elsewhere in the Middle East, and the Arab countries’ role in supporting U.S. military activities has come under intensified scrutiny since the Israel-Hamas war that erupted in October.”

So, the US is much diminished in any potential regional military assistance. Add to this, since Biden’s chaotic withdrawal it no longer has Bagram airbase in Afghanistan. Indeed, this particular base has come under the sway of China.

3) Global powers are poised

Add to the US’ loss of regional capabilities, and as has already played out as a test case in Syria, the Brics alliance of nations led by Russia and China will not long tolerate any US-led war against Iran directly.

The Economist reports 10th April 2024:

There is little doubt which side China favours in the Gaza war. Its muted response to the October 7th attacks on Israel—in which it failed to condemn the perpetrator, Hamas—stands in sharp contrast to its denunciation of Israel’s actions since then. Just days after the war began, the Chinese foreign Minister, Wang Yi, said that Israel had already gone ‘beyond the scope of self-defence’”.

Putin was Iran’s primary militarily-active ally in blocking US designs for Syria. It goes without saying that what goes for Syria would apply manifold for Iran.

Click to play:

Putin: Western countries do not like it “when someone tells or acts not in accordance with their wishes, they only believe in their own exceptionalism. They believe that they can do anything. They do not want durable peace at the holy land. They need chaos in the Middle East. That's why they are discrediting those countries that insist on the immediate ceasefire in the Gaza strip insisting on stopping the bloodshed and are willing to make a practical contribution in the resolving this crisis, not trying to gain from this. Even the U.N. the clearly stipulated position of the global community is attacked and being discredited. I would like to emphasize this. In our approaches to the situation in the Middle East, unlike the Western stance, we have never had any wish to gain anything from that. We have always clearly stipulated our position, declared our position, and it hasn't changed across the years. We stand for the establishment of the full-fledged Palestinian state.

The international community simply has no more tolerance for any further US military adventures in the Middle East. If - contrary to all common sense - the US were to directly support Israel in a war against Iran, well then that would most likely trigger World War III, involving Russia and China plus Iran and other allies versus the US and UK plus Israel and other allies. Only an absolute imbecile would be cheering that on right now. It also happens to be Netanyahu’s only hope for survival.

4) US signals to Israel: we will only go so far

Agreeing to a ceasefire and a negotiated permanent settlement - hitherto rejected by Netanyahu - was and remains Israel’s only sane way forward.

Trump deliberately reduced Saturday night’s conflict to a domestic political point scoring play in order to downgrade it in importance:

As Radical Media has previously reported, during his first term in office Tump made his disappointment at Netanyahu publicly known. Trump said he believed Netanyahu “did not want to make peace. Never did” and that “I thought the Palestinians were impossible and the Israelis would do anything to make peace and a deal. I found that not to be true.

The Times of Israel reports 2024:

In the latest taped comments broadcast by Channel 12, Trump said he believed Netanyahu ‘did not want to make peace. Never did’; claimed he prevented the Israeli leader from annexing West Bank land (‘I got angry and I stopped it’); offered his favorable opinion on Defense Minister Benny Gantz (‘I think [he] wanted to make a deal… if he won, I think it would be a lot easier’); and his evolving view on the Israel-Palestinian conflict (‘I [had] thought the Palestinians were impossible, and the Israelis would do anything to make peace and a deal. I found that not to be true’).

Here is video footage of Trump after his presidency reminiscing about his experience with Netanyahu.

Click to play:

“….about 15 seconds later it was all over, and we did it (drone strike on Iranian General Soleimani - ed). But I’ll never forget..I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down. That was a very terrible thing. I will say that.. and..so when I see sometimes, the intelligence, you talk about the intelligence or you talk about some of the things that went wrong over the last week, they’ve gotta straighten it out, because they’re fighting potentially a very big force, they’re fighting potentially Iran.

And when they have people saying the wrong things, everything they’re saying is being digested by these people, because they’re viscous and they’re smart, and boy are they viscous, because nobody’s ever seen the kind of sight that we’ve seen, nobody’s ever seen it. But they cannot play games. So we were disappointed by that. Very disappointed. But we did the job ourselves. And it was absolute precision, magnificent, beautiful job (the strike on Soleimani - ed)... and then err Bibi (Netanyahu) tried to take credit for it, that didn’t make me feel to good but that’s alright. So they gotta strengthen themselves up..

Last month, and as the Republican party candidate for president again, Trump issued a stern warning to Israel while demanding peace in Gaza. This action by Trump places the spotlight well and firmly on Netanyahu.

Click to play:

Trump: “And we got to get to peace. You can't have this going on. And I will say Israel has to be very careful because you're losing a lot of the world. You're losing a lot of support. But you have to finish up. You have to get the job done. And you have to get on to peace. You have to get on to a normal life for Israel and for everybody else..”

Politico reports 24th March 2024:

Former President Donald Trump said Israel has to “finish up” the war in Gaza in a Monday interview with an Israeli news outlet, adding that the country “has to be very careful” because it is “losing a lot of support”

..The presumptive Republican nominee’s comments come as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pulled an Israel delegation that was set to visit Washington after the U.S. allowed a resolution calling for a cease-fire to pass the U.N. Security Council.”

Add to Trump’s repeated warnings to Israel, Biden’s luke warm reaction to the Iranian drones Saturday night and the scene is set.

He apparently remained asleep.

When Netanyahu did eventually hear from Biden, it only confirmed Radical Media’s instant analysis dispatched Saturday evening before the missiles had even landed.

The Jerusalem Post reports 14th April 2024:

Israel's decision to retaliate early Sunday morning against Iran's massive attack was halted after a phone call between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden. US officials considered Israel's interception of more than 300 drones and missiles as a significant strategic victory that should not necessitate further retaliation, The New York Times reported, citing US officials.

All this leaves British PM Rishi Sunak huffing, and maybe puffing, with nothing that can possibly come of it except gesture politics.

Despite what Zelensky would have us all do.


5) Israel has no option but to settle permanent terms

The obvious is at least being recognised by Israel’s leftwing media.

Haaretz reports 11th Aprili 2024:

We've lost. Truth must be told. The inability to admit it encapsulates everything you need to know about Israel's individual and mass psychology. There's a clear, sharp, predictable reality that we should begin to fathom, to process, to understand and to draw conclusions from for the future. It's no fun to admit that we've lost, so we lie to ourselves.

As we stated, agreeing to a ceasefire and a negotiated permanent settlement - hitherto rejected by Netanyahu - was and remains the only sane way forward for Israel.

6) Post Iran-attack fallout analysis

So far, all other states appear to have stayed out of the escalation in conflict. This confirms our analysis. There is one matter however, that of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s reaction, to clear up.

This action by Jordan to protect its own airspace from unauthorised acts of war occurring through it in real time, has caused some online political hobbyists to decry “the Kingdom of Jordan are traitors.” Such rhetoric is a politically amateur red-herring. It is usually peddled by those who interpret politics theo-scripturally: “what they did is haram!” This is usually why such theopolitical types never get anywhere politically.

If you’re going to use Jordanian air space to launch missiles into a third country, you obviously need advance permission to use Jordan’s sovereign airspace. Doing so without permission leaves the sovereign Kingdom of Jordan no option but to clean out its airspace from unapproved destructive missiles flying overhead, after already having closed their airspace to all hours earlier. It is a violation of sovereignty to simply allow this to happen without permission. It would have effectively forced Jordan into facilitating an act of war that is not on its own terms if it didn’t act to stop it. Jordan would obviously just as quickly not grant Israel permission to use its airspace to launch missiles towards Iran.

This is obviously why Jordan started the night by simply announcing that their airspace was closed to everyone. On the other hand, allowing the missiles to pass unhindered would’ve been an act of war, and would’ve made it harder to contain WWIII as fallout in response.

On that note, there appears to be major confusion among political hobbyists on various media platforms about ‘war being all theatre’. By way of clarification: yes, it is. That’s why we say “the theatre of war”.

But, in this sense all public life is theatre. To some extent a lot of private life is too. Because we all do some things in private that we don’t do in public, and are compelled to say certain things publicly not because we actually want to, but because it is better to. This does not make our lives any less real to us.

Yes, all war is theatre. But that doesn’t make it any less real. Regimes, particularly powerful ones, engage in incremental acts of war against each other in incredibly calculated ways, thereby increasing the temperature within some very controlled parameters so as to have a very good handle on potential responses.

It is very calculated because the implications of total war are so vast. If a state actually wanted WWIII they would know exactly how to bring it about. Iran sending drones that take nine hours to arrive - and are actually better used for counter insurgency operations not state-on-state direct war - instead of sending cruise missiles that could have arrived in two hours, is a very calculated response to the Israeli attack on their consulate in Syria. It isn’t reckless. It is a calculated and telegraphed face-saving measure that hits Israel where it needs to and restores deterrence while not recklessly leaving Israel with only one option remaining: to strike back in all out war also to save face. As it stands, Israel’s desire to provoke all out war has been diminished after these attacks, not strengthened.

A wise statesman would always leave wiggle-room, so that if total war is declared, it is beyond doubt to all internal observers, who may seek to unseat their own ruler, that there was no option left. Hence, they are then able to all rally behind their ruler. Think of state-driven conflict - the theatre of war - as you would a real life altercation with someone in a social environment you regularly frequent. Nothing just randomly happens. Altercations are usually the culmination of multiple micro-medium aggressions that at some point either spill over, or do not. Depending on what you do, and how. None of those micro-medium aggressions are any less real as you engage in them, while trying to suss out your opponent in real time. With all of this in mind, yes state aggression is usually pre-telegraphed and pre-arranged, but it is no less real.

Think of this like a game of chess. The better player is able to wear down their opponent until there is no point in them fighting any longer. A bad player will act recklessly and trigger WWIII, because in chess terms triggering WWIII can only ever bring about a stalemate, not a checkmate. The only reason one would want to play for stalemate is if the alternative means to lose completely. This helps to explain why Iran was showing restraint while Netanyahu was provoking war while not making it inevitable, by bombing the Iranian consulate in Syria.

Netanyahu is in the corner facing checkmate. His hope is to goad Iran into making a mistake that rallies the world behind him again. Now he’s fast running out of moves.

The Times of Israel reports 16th April 2024:

Nearly three-quarters of the Israeli public oppose a retaliatory strike on Iran for its massive missile attack on the country if such action would harm Israel’s security alliance with its allies, according to a poll published Tuesday.

As Radical Media has made clear from immediately after the 7th October attacks.

Israel now stands isolated.

Our mission is to bring you Radical Media for Radical truths that modern corporatist media seek to silence. We cannot do this without your support. Full members also receive WARRIOR CREED and other Resistance Radio content and special offers. Please upgrade your membership and become a paying, full monthly member here:

Listen to this episode with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Radical Media - by Maajid Nawaz to listen to this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.