Syria Civil War II: Empire Strikes Back

This Radical Dispatch Newszine - below - is provided free for all subscribers.

At the top of this post, Resistance Radio presents our WARRIOR CREED video/audio podcast from Tuesday 3rd December 2024, with a transcript provided - Syria Civil War II: Empire Strikes Back.

This podcast can be set to either audiovisual, or just audio, and is for premium members of Radical Media only. To listen, basic members should upgrade to the premium service here:

Read on now for our free Radical Dispatch.

---

Syria Civil War II: Empire Strikes Back

Plus Pakistan, Hunter Biden Pardon, Nigel Farage as PM and the WARRIOR CREED Podcast

- A Radical Dispatch

1) Syria Civil War II

In a surprise development, sunni jihadist rebel forces have wrested the ancient city of Aleppo from Syrian regime control.

The Times reports 30th November 2024:

The Times reports 30th November 2024:

“Rebels seized parts of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, from Russian-backed regime forces on Friday in a lightning advance.”

This development effectively reignited the Syrian civil war and with it re-embroiled all external parties concerned, both directly and via their proxies. The resulting web of cross-cutting alliances makes a dangerous powder keg that carries with it the potential of exploding into a broader regional conflict.

Essentially, this is a war between BRICS-alliance countries and Nato-allied countries over the future of Syria, with the Syrian people stuck in the middle.

i) BRICS nation proxies:

While maintaining their own troops in the country, Russia and Iran plus her proxy militias have all once again rallied to support Syria’s ruler Assad. The Russians even launched their own airstrikes on Aleppo after the Sunni jihadist HTS had entered the city.

The Times reports 2nd December 2024:

The Times reports 2nd December 2024:

“President Assad of Syria vowed to crush the Islamist rebel group that has seized control of Aleppo as regime troops backed by Russian airstrikes rallied on Sunday to prevent it from advancing further. ‘Terrorism only understands the language of force, and that is the language which we will crush it and eliminate it with, whoever its supporters and sponsors are,’ Assad said in a phone call…Iran pledged that it would assist Assad in regaining Aleppo…Russian aircraft carried out multiple sorties against the jihadist-led rebels over the weekend in support of Assad’s regime…The Kremlin said on Monday that Russia was continuing to support the Syrian government regime...China said on Monday that it ‘supports Syria’s efforts to maintain national security and stability’. ‘China is willing to make positive efforts to prevent further deterioration of the situation in Syria,” the foreign ministry spokesman, Lin Jian, said..’.”

The BRICS-allied countries have also been using proxy militias in order to influence the course of the Syrian civil war. Iran in particular has been involved but in recent years her presence has become significantly weakened due to the broader war with Israel.

The Times reports 30th November 2024:

“Iran’s forces in the country have come under repeated airstrikes from Israel over the past year. Many of their proxy militiamen had moved closer to the borders with Lebanon to assist Hezbollah in its war with Israel.”

Historically, Iran had also been relying on drafting in shia jihadist group Hezbollah (proscribed in the UK as a terrorist organisation) from Lebanon in order to defend Assad’s regime, but since the Gaza war and Israel’s effective decapitation of the Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon, this card will be difficult to play again.

The Times reports 1st December 2024:

“It comes as Hezbollah and Israel struck a 60-day ceasefire agreement following Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is seen to have been drastically damaged by the Israeli campaign, having lost many of its commanders and much of its arsenal. Israel has also hit Hezbollah targets within Syria in recent months.”

The collapse of the Lebanese banking system in 2020 has also left Syria’s regime elite in a much depleted state financially.

The Times reports 1st December 2024:

“A final blow came with the collapse of the Lebanese banking system in 2020. It was where Syria’s elite class had kept their money for years, and it disappeared overnight.”

Hence, due to the above, any Iranian response from Hezbollah in Lebanon is likely to be muted.

ii) Nato-allied proxies

Meanwhile, the US and her Nato ally Türkiye have also stationed their own troops inside the country while backing the anti-regime SDF militia formed of Kurds, and the sunni jihadists at HTS respectively.

Despite the fact that Türkiye’s Nato-ally the US is backing the SDF Kurdish factions, Türkiye supports HTS sunni jihadists over working with these Kurds due to their suspected desire to incorporate a chunk of modern Türkiye to form one third of their desired future independent Kurdish state, which would see large parts of Iraq and Syria broken up too.

The Times reports 1st December 2024:

Türkiye “has long been frustrated with the Assad regime, severing diplomatic ties with Syria in 2012 over the civil war. President Erdogan of Turkey attempted to normalise ties with Syria earlier this year but could not secure reconciliation because Assad imposed numerous preconditions, such as demanding that Turkey withdraw entirely from northwest Syria. This is a red line for Ankara because of security concerns linked to the People’s Protection Units, a Kurdish group that it considers to be an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a designated terrorist group in Turkey, the UK, the United States and the European Union.”

From the Turkish perspective, at least the sunni jihadists at HTS only seek to dismember Syria, and not Türkiye. Hence, Erdogan’s calculation is that the HTS sunni jihadists form a useful counterweight to US backing for the Kurds. This is despite the fact that HTS grew out of what was formerly al-Qaeda.

The Times reports 2nd December 2024:

“The region of Idlib, near the border with Turkey, had formed a last pocket of resistance against the Assad regime, but for some time had been under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), originally a local branch of al-Qaeda, as well as Turkish-backed militias…in the past few days the Islamist-led rebels took advantage of their enemies’ distraction and made sudden and sweeping gains, capturing Aleppo and advancing on the Hama region on the road towards Damascus…Eight years after Syria’s second city — and the largest by population — had been retaken by Assad’s regime from rebel forces, it was once again held by a mixed group of opposition fighters…HTS is an important ally of Turkey in Syria, although Ankara claimed on Monday that ‘no foreign interference’ was behind the rebel group’s lightning advance. Much about the group remains unclear, including the number of troops at its disposal. Estimates range from 10,000 to 20,000.”

This means that the Nato-alliance via Turkey - with the US as a partner on the ground - is currently providing material support to a proscribed terrorist group HTS, which is an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Syria.

The Times reports 2nd December 2024:

“HTS emerged in its previous form as Jabhat al-Nusra, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, in 2011. Since 2016, HTS has split from al-Qaeda and disavowed its origins. Led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, a jihadist from the Golan Heights, the group has since fought with other al-Qaeda offshoots as well as Islamic State, but it is proscribed as a terrorist organisation by Britain, the United States and others.”

Ironically, the status of HTS as a proscribed terrorist group inside the very countries that are giving it their tacit backing in Syria, is doing it little harm.

The Times reports 1st December 2024:

“It remains a sanctioned terrorist group in much of the outside world’s eyes. However, that proved an advantage. Unlike the SDF — constrained by its US backer, the regime, dependent on Russia and Iran, and the “mainstream” northern rebels which were tightly controlled by Turkey — it could act autonomously.”

iii) mobilisation of armed battalions by both sides

As a result of the progress made into Aleppo at such speed by HTS, and due to the depletion of her shia jihadist Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon as referenced above, this time Iran has reportedly mobilised Iraqi shia battalions in an attempt to bolster Assad’s forces.

The Times reports 2nd December 2024:

“The government has said it is determined to keep control of the city. On Sunday night, pro-Iranian militias crossed the border from Iraq to help Assad’s forces maintain their control over Hama.”

Click to play:

Likewise, sunni jihadist rebels have also mobilised what is reported to be an equally large number of their own reinforcements.

Click to play:

None of this bodes well for Syria or the region, and all efforts must be made to deescalate this conflict.

Regardless, the result of these battalions coming from inside Iraq and Syria does appear to be a fulfilment of prophecy.

“By way of Abdullah Ibn Hawālah, the Prophet ﷺ said: It will come to pass that you will become conscripted battalions, one in al-Sham (Syria, the Levant), one in Yemen and one in Iraq. Ibn Hawalah said: Choose for me, Oh Messenger of Allah, lest I reach that time. He replied: Your duty is to al-Sham (Syria, the Levant), for it is the best of Allah’s land, to which his best servants will be gathered. But if you are unwilling, then your duty is to your Yemen. And draw water from your tanks, for Allah has on my account taken special charge of al-Sham (Syria, the Levant) and its people.”

Reference: Sunan Abi Dawud 2483 Authenticated by al-Albani

iv) Syria split into four quadrants

The upshot of this complicated geopolitical web is that it has left post-war Syria divided into four distinct areas of governance.

The Times reports 1st December 2024:

The Times reports 1st December 2024:

“Syria was divided into four. The regime in the major cities of Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Deraa; the Turkish-backed rebels in the north; the jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), by now divorced from al-Qaeda, in the northwest; and the SDF running the eastern cities of Raqqa, Qamishli and Hasakah — the latter two with a Kurdish ethnic majority.”

Below is a map of Syria currently divided into these four quadrants.

The Times reports 2nd December 2024:

In addition to these four factions that control territory inside Syria, the external states involved also maintain their own troops inside the country.

The Times reports 2nd December 2024:

“…Russia and Iran, Turkey and the United States also have troops in the country.”

By way of a summary, this reignited Syrian civil war is proceeding as follows:

v) The Great Game has lost its mystique

Caught in the middle of this proxy great game of nations, and especially after ISIS, many Sunni Muslims around the world are generally no longer taking the bait. This has been explained in some detail by the British sunni Muslim leader, Shaykh Asrar Rashid.

Click to play:

Shaykh Asrar Rashid: “My stance is not with either side. It is not with Bashar al-Assad. Bashar al-Assad is a Zalim, a person who committed acts of oppression. The Ba'athi regime, sectarian regime caused harm to the people of Syria, but also the people who entered Syria, those who pushed for an armed revolution from Türkiye, from the Arab Khalij (Gulf) states, as well as the United States of America, the CIA pushed, one dollar for every 15 dollars of the budget of the CIA was in order to arm people in Syria. And those weapons came in the hands of Jabhat al-Nusra. Jabhat al-Nusra was a spinoff of ISIS. In fact, Awad Ibrahim, who became known as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was the one who sent al-Jawlani to Syria to form Jabhat al-Nusra.

Later, they had their own disputes in 2013 and 2014, and then ISIS entered Syria. It was known as ISI before Islamic State in Iraq, but when he entered Syria became known as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. These people harmed Syrians also. So I do not back the revolution and I do not back the regime. Both have committed harm to the Syrian people, to the Ahl-Sunnah, the Sunni Muslims of Syria, but not only the Sunnis. Other groups were harmed. The Christians were harmed the innocent people from all these various ethnicities in Syria were harmed. And that is what people need to understand. You cannot take a position with Russia alone, and you cannot take a position with the United States alone. You cannot take a position with Bashar al-Assad alone. You cannot take a position with the so-called revolutionaries alone. Anyone who does that, they are blinded to so many facts and considerations. We take the position of the oppressed and the oppressed were on various fronts. So that is the very nuanced position on Syria, which people need to understand.”

The lifting of this veil has upset some of those on the International Left who up until the Syria conflict had taken Muslim support for granted.

Many politically engaged Muslim voices have started to notice the disdain the International Left suddenly shows them once the regimes being challenged by Muslims are regimes that the Left supports.

And just as occurred over Starmer’s lack of action over Gaza during the last UK General Election, Syria will be a topic that pulls Sunni Muslims away from their historic ties to the Western Left.

vi) A grand regional settlement is inevitable

The truth is that most of the world is essentially exhausted fighting these proxy wars. A grand regional settlement is inevitable. These latest moves in Syria are more likely to be the death-throes of various players who are jostling for position before President Trump brings an end to these conflicts.

Allowing the Syrian civil war to reignite in the way that it once did will revive refugee flows into Europe, which serves as yet another reason for why Western powers will want to contain the conflict as much as possible instead of allowing it to flare up again.

The Times reports 2nd December 2024:

“The latest fighting will raise fears in Europe and the states neighbouring Syria of another wave of refugees fleeing the violence as the stalemate between the country’s various power brokers crumbles.”

A hint towards this perspective can be found in a report from 2017 during Trump’s first term in office. It appears that Turkey’s initial incursion into Syria was done through close communication with President Trump, in what has been referred to as ‘Operation Peace Spring’.

The Times reports 11th October 2017:

“Last night a senior US state department official said that Turkey was so far operating within parameters set by Mr Trump…The state department added that the president had instructed diplomats to seek a ceasefire and find 'areas of commonality between the two sides’. Mr Trump implied that he had discussed the limits of the Turkish operation with Mr Erdogan. ‘I say hit Turkey very hard financially and with sanctions if they don’t play by the rules!’ He later said: ‘We have one of three choices: Send in thousands of troops and win Militarily, hit Turkey very hard Financially and with Sanctions, or mediate a deal between Turkey and the Kurds!’..President Trump had ordered US troops to be pulled out of the two bases on Sunday night after a telephone conversation with Mr Erdogan; a decision interpreted by the Turks and others as a “green light” for the military operation, named Operation Peace Spring.”

With President Trump on the verge of starting his second term, it is likely that Erdogan is once again making moves inside Syria via HTS, in anticipation of whatever regional settlement Trump plans to impose.

A regional settlement certainly looks like its on the table. This can also be gleaned by observing Trump’s latest pick for Middle East envoy. During Trump’s first term this role was given to his son-in-law, the Jewish-American Jared Kushner. This time it is being given to his daughter’s father-in-law, who is an American-Arab.

The Times reports 2nd December 2024:

“Massad Boulos, whose son Michael is married to Tiffany Trump, has been appointed senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs...Massad determinedly made connections between Muslim and Arab leaders and the Republican Party…The two sides of the conflict will soon be represented in Trump’s clan because Ms Trump and her husband are expecting a child…Trump’s other son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who is married to Trump’s other daughter, Ivanka Trump, was the Middle East adviser during his last presidency.”

All of this points to what we have been forecasting here at Radical Media for some time, that Netanyahu will in the end have no choice but to comply with Trump’s wishes for a regional peace.

The Times reports 1st December 2024:

The Times reports 1st December 2024:

“Trump has said that expanding the Abraham Accords is a priority for him…Trump wants to bring Saudi Arabia on board. But the Saudis will require an end to the war in Gaza and a credible pathway to a Palestinian state. Netanyahu may therefore soon face some hard choices: acquiesce to Trump and risk his coalition, or reject Trump and face uncertain consequences.”

This author stated as much back in 2021, long before the October 7th attacks scuppered the brief hope that arose for a regional peace.

Click to play:

“This is a regional problem, with proxy terrorist militia operating regionally, operating across these borders from Lebanon into Syria to squash the uprising there, the same Hezbollah that to Israel's north is standing ready in case there's a regional conflict…So as a result, there can be no lasting solution to this until we solve that regional riddle... this is your hand. If you're trying to understand the region, this is the hand you've been dealt with. This is the mosaic of complications involved. So if you understand it like this, you realise there can be no separate peace with Hamas or Hezbollah if they're controlled by Iran and with Islamic Jihad if they're controlled by Assad in Syria. Which means that, in fact, the real conversations need to be happening between Israel, Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and now I'm gonna bring in Egypt. Why? Because Gaza shares a border with Egypt and the blockade is enforced against Gaza, not just by Israel, but also by Egypt.

…So what we really need is Israel, Egypt, Iran, and Syria, and finally, I'll add Saudi Arabia, without which pretty much not much can happen in the Middle East, to be having these multilateral discussions led by President Biden in the United States. And ultimately, yes, in that context, Israel should talk to Hamas. It won’t make any sense in talking to Hamas when you understand they key players here, are bigger than Hamas.”

2) Debate speech at the Oxford Union

Last month, this author debated at the Oxford Union in opposition to the motion that Islam is incompatible with democracy. That debate is now available in full via youtube.

Click here to go to youtube for full 11 minute debate speech.

Readers may find a short video trailer for the Oxford debate below, as well as Section 3 of this Radical Dispatch on the Islamabad massacre in Pakistan, Section 4 on Hunter Biden’s presidential pardon and Section 5 on Nigel Farage as he continues to gain support to become the British PM. Continue reading…